07/02/19 Pre-Market Thoughts 4 AM CST.

 

 

Hi Traders,
Now that the G20 summit has come and gone I believe volatility will go back to normal. Please understand when I say normal I’m referring to summer months volatility which is usually none at all. Lets all cross our fingers and hope for more economic and political news that can shift the market or least add some kind of knee jerk reaction from time to time. Luckily for us we do have earnings coming up soon this could very well help with some much needed action toward the end of the month.
Keep in mind when the market doesn’t present opportunities you have to protect yourself from bad loses. The bad loses will have you trading and playing the catch up game. Let me explain to you what the catch up game is all about. When a trader is beaten up in the market on days he or she has no edge but was being very aggressive. This means on days the trader is actually making money but they find themselves trying to make up those loses from previous days instead of compounding the profitable days which make for profitable months and profitable years. (I’m sure none of you have ever done this) So I know I’m the only one who can relate right ? hahahahaha
Tuesday July 2nd could very well end up being treated like a Friday in the market before a holiday. Most people will probably leave for vacation early. Yes the market will be open all day however I don’t expect a ton of volume or volatility for the next 3 trading sessions (Tuesday July 2nd, Wednesday July 3rd and Friday July 5th) I expect trading to be very boring now that the market has already priced in the meeting of the minds at the G20 Summit. Prepare for next Monday July 8th to be your next trading session.
I’m looking for the market (ES emini S&P 500) to possibly retest yesterdays highs near 2980.00 but wouldn’t shock me to see some resistance at 2976.00 before heading to the 2980.25 levels. the emini doesn’t look very actionable to the upside currently so my bias for activity is to the down side. If the bears can take control of trend then I would like to see the market trade back down to last Fridays levels which would provide more opportunity.
Truthfully I don’t think the bears will be able to push the market down that far in the next few days but anything is possible especially with an oil report coming on Wednesday. I won’t join the sellers until they trade below 29470.25 with support levels at 2945.50, 2943.25 if broken my next targets can be 29.41.25 to 2937.75 if broken my next targets can be 2935.25 to 2932.50 and eventually 2928.75
Have a great 4th of July weekend. If you’re going to be watching the market remember don’t get caught playing the catch up game. It’s never worth it !